13 April, 2009
Fueled by my last post on this topic, I have been scouring the net for sources of ideas to fix the problem. Of course everyone is watching the US, so why not start with the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve System…
First, a little visual preamble…
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Ben S Bernanke: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheetÂ
Speech by Mr Ben S Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US FederalÂ
Reserve System, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 2009 Credit MarketsÂ
Symposium, Charlotte, North Carolina, 3 April 2009.Â
The original speech, which contains various links to the documents mentioned, can be found on the US FederalÂ
Reserve System’s website.Â
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In ordinary financial and economic times, my topic, “The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, “might not be considered a “grabber.” But these are far from ordinary times. To address the current crisis, the Federal Reserve has taken a number of aggressive and creative policy actions, many of which are reflected in the size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet.Â
So, I thought that a brief guided tour of our balance sheet might be an instructive way to discuss the Fed’s policy strategy and some related issues. As I will discuss, we no longer live in a world in which central bank policies are confined to adjusting the short-term interest rate. Instead, by using their balance sheets, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are developing new tools to ease financial conditions and support economic growth.
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Some principles for balance sheet policyÂ
Before I get into the details of our balance sheet and how it reflects various Federal Reserve initiatives, I would like to note some general considerations that have been important in shaping our policy approach. As you know, financial markets and institutions both in the United States and globally have been under extraordinary stress for more than a year and a half. Relieving the disruptions in credit markets and restoring the flow of credit to households and businesses are essential if we are to see, as I expect, the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth. To achieve this critical objective, the Federal Reserve has worked closely and cooperatively with the Treasury and other agencies. Such collaboration is not unusual. We have traditionally worked in close concert with other agencies in fostering stable financial conditions, even as we have maintained independent responsibility for making monetary policy.
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The balance sheet as a tool of monetary policyÂ
The severe disruption of credit markets that began late in the summer of 2007 and the associated tightening in credit conditions and declines in asset prices have weighed heavily on economic activity here and abroad. The Federal Reserve has responded by aggressively easing short-term interest rates, beginning in September 2007. In October 2008, as the financial crisis intensified, the Federal Reserve participated in an unprecedented coordinated rate cut with other major central banks. At its December 2008 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced its target for the federal funds rate close to its lower bound, setting a target range between 0 and 1/4 percent. And, with inflation expected to remain subdued for some time, the Committee has indicated that short-term interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period. With conventional monetary policy having reached its limit, any further policy stimulus requires a different set of tools.
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Liquidity programs for financial firmsÂ
The first of these categories of assets – short-term liquidity provided to financial institutions – totals almost $860 billion and today represents nearly 45 percent of the assets on our balance sheet. These loans are made to sound institutions, are fully secured, and are for maturities no greater than 90 days, usually less. Thus, they are very safe. The main components of this category are lending to commercial banks and primary dealers, as well as currency swaps with other central banks to support interconnected global dollar funding markets.4Â
Direct lending to borrowers and investorsÂ
A second set of programs initiated by the Federal Reserve – including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) – aims to improve the functioning of key credit markets by lending directly to market participants, including ultimate borrowers and major investors. The lending associated with these facilities is currently about $255 billion, corresponding to roughly one-eighth of the assets on the Fed’s balance sheet. The sizes of these programs, notably the TALF, are expected to grow in the months ahead. Â
Purchases of high-quality assetsÂ
The third major category of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet is holdings of high-quality securities, notably Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency-backed MBS. These holdings currently total about $780 billion, or about three-eighths of Federal Reserve assets. Of this $780 billion, holdings of Treasury securities currently make up about $490 billion. Some of these Treasury securities are lent out through the Term Securities Lending Facility that I mentioned earlier. Obviously, these holdings are very safe from a credit perspective. Longer-term securities do pose some interest-rate risk; however, because the Federal Reserve finances its purchases with short-term liabilities, on average and over time, that risk is mitigated by the normal upward slope of the yield curve.Â
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ConclusionÂ
These are extraordinarily challenging times for our financial system and our economy. I am confident that we can meet these challenges, not least because I have great confidence in the underlying strengths of the American economy. For its part, the Federal Reserve will make responsible use of all its tools to stabilize financial markets and institutions, to promote the extension of credit to creditworthy borrowers, and to help build a foundation for economic recovery. Over the longer term, we also look forward to working with our counterparts at other supervisory and regulatory agencies in the United States and around the world to address the structural issues – some of which have been discussed in this conference – that have led to this crisis so as to minimize the risk of ever facing such a situation again.Â
With all due respect Mr. Paul, I think he’s trying really hard to get it right!